A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
